MeritValue

Flywire Corp

FLYWdata completeness 88%7 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Flywire Corp earns about -7% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 80% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $27.53 and $48.22 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$201.1M1$289.4M2$403.1M3$492.1M3$623M3
Net income−$28.1M4−$39.3M5−$8.57M6$2.9M6$13.5M6
Operating cash flow$17.1M7$5.43M8$76.3M9$98.7M9$100.2M9
Capital expenditure$1.05M10$1.35M11$1.01M12$924,00012$1.35M12
Free cash flow (derived)$16.1M7$4.07M8$75.3M9$97.7M9$98.8M9
Total debt$51.9M13$013———
Cash & equivalents$385.4M14$349.2M15$654.6M16$495.2M17$330.3M17
Diluted shares71.2M107.9M114.8M129.3M127.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$65.38
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$1.06
Free cash flow it threw off
$7.74
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $65.38 of net worth that earned you $1.06 and generated $7.74 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-7% avg · 5y
FY21 -13%FY22 -22%FY23 -2%FY24 1%FY25 3%

It earned about -7% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+80% shares · 5y

Share count is up 80% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 100% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $27.53 and $48.22 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$48.22
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$97.7M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$27.53
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$97.7M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
$4.02
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $27.53
The three cases
Bear0.0%$13.52
Base20.0%$27.53
Bull20.0%$27.53

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-021713 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-027078 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-067540 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-021713 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-027078 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-067540 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-021713 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-027078 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-067540 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-021713 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-027078 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-067540 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-007149 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-007149 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-021713 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-027078 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-067540 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)