MeritValue

Firefly Aerospace Inc.

FLYdata completeness 100%3 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Firefly Aerospace Inc. earns about -25% on equity, but has diluted owners by 478% over 3 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$55.2M1$60.8M1$159.9M1
Net income−$135.5M2−$231.1M2−$298.3M2
Operating cash flow−$93.4M3−$157.7M3−$204.9M3
Capital expenditure$77.2M4$32.7M4$32.8M4
Free cash flow (derived)−$170.7M3−$190.3M3−$237.8M3
Total debt—$6.35M5$7.1M5
Cash & equivalents$81.9M6$123.4M6$793M6
Diluted shares12.0M12.8M69.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$171.95
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$43.11
Free cash flow it threw off
−$34.35
Debt you’d be carrying
$1.03

10 shares is a claim on $171.95 of net worth that earned you −$43.11 and generated −$34.35 of cash last year, against $1.03 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-25% avg · 3y
FY23 —FY24 —FY25 -25%

It earned an average -25% on equity over 3 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+478% shares · 3y

Share count is up 478% over 3 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 12% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-116309 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-116309 (NetIncomeLoss)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-116309 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-116309 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-116309 (DebtCurrent)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-116309 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)