MeritValue

Flutter Entertainment plc

FLUTdata completeness 100%8 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Flutter Entertainment plc earns about 0% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 20% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $61.65 and $204.94 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2019FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$2.53B1$9.46B2$11.8B3$14B3$16.4B3
Net income$62.8M4−$370M5−$1.21B6$162M6−$407M6
Operating cash flow$670.6M7$1.16B8$937M9$1.6B9$1.18B9
Capital expenditure$27.5M10$122M11$159M12$144M12$105M12
Free cash flow (derived)$643.1M7$1.04B8$778M9$1.46B9$1.08B9
Total debt$4.93B13—$14.1B14$13.5B15$24.5B15
Cash & equivalents$621.9M16$966M17$1.5B18$1.53B18$1.83B18
Diluted shares147.9M177.0M177.0M180.0M177.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$510.62
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$22.99
Free cash flow it threw off
$60.96
Debt you’d be carrying
$1,385.99

10 shares is a claim on $510.62 of net worth that earned you −$22.99 and generated $60.96 of cash last year, against $1,385.99 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
0% avg · 5y
FY19 1%FY22 -1%FY23 -2%FY24 2%FY25 1%

It earned about 0% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+20% shares · 5y

Share count is up 20% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 397% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $61.65 and $204.94 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$204.94
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth18.8%
  • fcfBase$1.08B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$61.65
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth18.8%
  • fcfBase$1.08B
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years18.8%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $61.65
The three cases
Bear0.0%−$41.17
Base18.8%$61.65
Bull20.0%$70.48

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 18.8%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 40-F · period ending 2019-12-31 · accession 0001635327-20-000014 (Revenue)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-009852 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001635327-26-000005 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 40-F · period ending 2019-12-31 · accession 0001635327-20-000014 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-009852 (ProfitLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001635327-26-000005 (ProfitLoss)
  7. 40-F · period ending 2019-12-31 · accession 0001635327-20-000014 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-009852 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001635327-26-000005 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 40-F · period ending 2019-12-31 · accession 0001635327-20-000014 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-009852 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001635327-26-000005 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 40-F · period ending 2019-12-31 · accession 0001635327-20-000014 (Borrowings)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-009852 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001635327-26-000005 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 40-F · period ending 2019-12-31 · accession 0001635327-20-000014 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-009852 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001635327-26-000005 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)