MeritValue

FLOWSERVE CORP

FLSdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

FLOWSERVE CORP earns about 7% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $14.93 and $138.53 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$3.54B1$3.62B2$4.32B3$4.56B3$4.73B3
Net income$125.9M4$188.7M5$186.7M6$282.8M6$346.2M6
Operating cash flow$250.1M7−$40M8$325.8M9$425.3M9$505.9M9
Capital expenditure$54.9M10$76.3M11$67.4M12$81M12$70.9M12
Free cash flow (derived)$195.2M7−$116.3M8$258.4M9$344.3M9$435M9
Total debt$2.61B13$2.55B14$2.47B15$3.01B16$3.15B16
Cash & equivalents$658.5M17$435M18$545.7M19$675.4M20$760.2M20
Diluted shares130.9M131.3M131.9M132.4M131.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$167.31
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$26.44
Free cash flow it threw off
$33.21
Debt you’d be carrying
$240.51

10 shares is a claim on $167.31 of net worth that earned you $26.44 and generated $33.21 of cash last year, against $240.51 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
7% avg · 5y
FY21 5%FY22 5%FY23 7%FY24 8%FY25 9%

It earned about 7% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+0% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has risen 21% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $14.93 and $138.53 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$138.53
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$344.3M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$67.45
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$344.3M
Earnings Power Value
$14.93
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$188.7M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$31.52
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $67.45
The three cases
Bear0.0%$19.31
Base20.0%$67.45
Bull20.0%$67.45

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000030625-24-000025 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000030625-25-000039 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000030625-26-000003 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000030625-24-000025 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000030625-25-000039 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000030625-26-000003 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000030625-24-000025 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000030625-25-000039 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000030625-26-000003 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000030625-24-000025 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000030625-25-000039 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000030625-26-000003 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000030625-23-000077 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000030625-24-000025 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000030625-25-000039 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000030625-26-000003 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000030625-23-000077 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000030625-24-000025 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000030625-25-000039 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000030625-26-000003 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)