MeritValue

FLUOR CORP

FLRdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

FLUOR CORP earns about 20% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 16% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $8.78 and $18.94 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$14.2B1$13.7B2$15.5B3$16.3B3$15.5B3
Net income−$440M4$145M5$139M6$2.15B6−$51M6
Operating cash flow$25M7$31M8$212M9$828M9−$387M9
Capital expenditure$75M10$75M11$106M12$164M12$50M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$50M7−$44M8$106M9$664M9−$437M9
Total debt$1.19B13$1.13B14$1.16B15$1.1B16$1.07B16
Cash & equivalents$2.21B17$2.44B18$2.52B19$2.83B20$2.14B20
Diluted shares141.0M145.0M153.0M174.0M164.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$197.8
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$3.11
Free cash flow it threw off
−$26.65
Debt you’d be carrying
$65.24

10 shares is a claim on $197.8 of net worth that earned you −$3.11 and generated −$26.65 of cash last year, against $65.24 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
20% avg · 5y
FY21 -54%FY22 32%FY23 32%FY24 94%FY25 -4%

It earned about 20% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+16% shares · 5y

Share count is up 16% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 10% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $8.78 and $18.94 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$18.94
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$106M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$17.96
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$106M
Earnings Power Value
$8.78
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$139M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $17.96
The three cases
Bear0.0%$15.73
Base5.0%$17.96
Bull10.0%$20.64

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-005451 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-005924 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001124198-26-000007 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-005451 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-005924 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001124198-26-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-005451 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-005924 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001124198-26-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-005451 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-005924 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001124198-26-000007 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-004139 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-005451 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-005924 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001124198-26-000007 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-004139 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-005451 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-005924 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001124198-26-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)