Flowco Holdings Inc.

FLOCdata completeness 100%3 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

Flowco Holdings Inc. earns about 15% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $6.64 and $15.22 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$74.5M1$258.6M1$341.8M1
Net income$58.1M2$80.2M2$41.4M3
Operating cash flow$81.9M4$179.4M4$294.4M4
Capital expenditure$43.5M5$90.5M5$127.3M5
Free cash flow (derived)$38.3M4$88.9M4$167.1M4
Total debt$1.27B6$335.6M6
Cash & equivalents$07$4.62M8$4.52M8
Diluted shares90.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$25.21
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$4.57
Free cash flow it threw off
$18.43
Debt you’d be carrying
$37.02

10 shares is a claim on $25.21 of net worth that earned you $4.57 and generated $18.43 of cash last year, against $37.02 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
15% avg · 3y
FY23 FY24 6%FY25 23%

It earned about 15% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−0% shares · 3y

Share count is roughly flat over 3 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has fallen 74% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $6.64 and $15.22 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$15.22
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$88.9M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$13.75
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$88.9M
Earnings Power Value
$6.64
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$58.1M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$8.39
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $13.75
The three cases
Bear0.0%$10.35
Base5.0%$13.75
Bull10.0%$17.8

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-077219 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-077219 (ProfitLoss)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-077219 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-077219 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-077219 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-077219 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-077219 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-077219 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)