MeritValue

FLOWERS FOODS INC

FLOdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

FLOWERS FOODS INC earns about 6% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $10.07 and $21.8 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2026
Revenue$4.33B1$4.81B2$5.09B3$5.1B3$5.26B3
Net income$206.2M4$228.4M5$123.4M6$248.1M6$83.8M6
Operating cash flow$344.6M7$360.9M8$349.4M9$412.7M9$446.2M9
Capital expenditure$136M10$169.1M11$129.1M12$132.1M12$127.1M12
Free cash flow (derived)$208.6M7$191.8M8$220.3M9$280.6M9$319.1M9
Total debt$1.78B13$1.78B14$2.1B15$2.04B16$3.51B16
Cash & equivalents$185.9M17$165.1M18$22.5M19$5.01M20$12.1M20
Diluted shares213.0M213.2M213.4M212.1M212.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$61.45
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$3.95
Free cash flow it threw off
$15.04
Debt you’d be carrying
$165.49

10 shares is a claim on $61.45 of net worth that earned you $3.95 and generated $15.04 of cash last year, against $165.49 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
6% avg · 5y
FY22 8%FY22 8%FY23 4%FY24 8%FY26 3%

It earned about 6% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−0% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has risen 97% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $10.07 and $21.8 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$21.8
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth10.4%
  • fcfBase$280.6M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$12.91
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth10.4%
  • fcfBase$280.6M
Earnings Power Value
$10.07
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$206.2M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$7.44
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years10.4%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $12.91
The three cases
Bear0.0%$2.41
Base10.4%$12.91
Bull15.4%$19.5

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 10.4%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0000950170-24-017647 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-022243 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001193125-26-071441 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0000950170-24-017647 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-022243 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001193125-26-071441 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0000950170-24-017647 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-022243 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001193125-26-071441 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0000950170-24-017647 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-022243 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001193125-26-071441 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0000950170-23-003619 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-017647 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0000950170-25-022243 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-28 · accession 0001193125-26-071441 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0000950170-23-003619 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-017647 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0000950170-25-022243 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-28 · accession 0001193125-26-071441 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)