MeritValue

Flex LNG Ltd.

FLNGdata completeness 88%9 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Flex LNG Ltd. earns about 4% on invested capital, with a roughly flat share count. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $23 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$343.4M1$347.9M2$371M3$356.3M3$347.6M3
Net income$162.2M4$188M5$120M6$117.7M6$74.8M6
Operating cash flow$214.8M7$219.9M8$175M9$182.8M9$140.7M9
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt$3.37B10$3.55B11$3.74B12$3.74B13$3.82B13
Cash & equivalents$200.7M14$332.3M15$410.4M16$437.2M17$447.6M17
Diluted shares53.3M53.5M54.0M54.0M54.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$132.98
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$13.83
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$706.33

10 shares is a claim on $132.98 of net worth that earned you $13.83 last year, against $706.33 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
4% avg · 5y
FY21 5%FY22 6%FY23 5%FY24 3%FY25 2%

It earned an average 4% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+1% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has risen 13% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 1 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 1 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$23
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$120M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$20.32
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001772253-24-000008 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001772253-25-000011 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012574 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001772253-24-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001772253-25-000011 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012574 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001772253-24-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001772253-25-000011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012574 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001772253-23-000006 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001772253-24-000008 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001772253-25-000011 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012574 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001772253-23-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001772253-24-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001772253-25-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012574 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)