MeritValue

Fluence Energy, Inc.

FLNCdata completeness 100%6 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Fluence Energy, Inc. earns about -99% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 87% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$680.8M1$1.2B2$2.22B3$2.7B3$2.26B3
Net income−$162M4−$104.5M5−$69.6M6$22.7M6−$48.3M6
Operating cash flow−$265.3M7−$282.4M8−$111.9M9$79.7M9−$145.5M9
Capital expenditure$4.29M10$7.93M11$2.99M12$8.12M12$14.9M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$269.6M7−$290.3M8−$114.9M9$71.6M9−$160.4M9
Total debt—$013$50.6M14$30.4M14$015
Cash & equivalents$36.8M16$357.3M17$345.9M18$448.7M19$690.8M19
Diluted shares—69.7M116.4M184.0M130.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$32.97
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$3.71
Free cash flow it threw off
−$12.31
Debt you’d be carrying
$0

10 shares is a claim on $32.97 of net worth that earned you −$3.71 and generated −$12.31 of cash last year, against $0 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-99% avg · 5y
FY21 —FY22 -287%FY23 -72%FY24 62%FY25 —

It earned an average -99% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+87% shares · 5y

Share count is up 87% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001868941-23-000085 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001868941-24-000070 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001868941-25-000081 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001868941-23-000085 (ProfitLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001868941-24-000070 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001868941-25-000081 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001868941-23-000085 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001868941-24-000070 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001868941-25-000081 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001868941-23-000085 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001868941-24-000070 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001868941-25-000081 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001868941-23-000085 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001868941-24-000070 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2025-09-30 · accession 0001868941-25-000081 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001868941-22-000120 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001868941-23-000085 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001868941-24-000070 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-30 · accession 0001868941-25-000081 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)