MeritValue

FULL HOUSE RESORTS INC

FLLdata completeness 100%16 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

FULL HOUSE RESORTS INC earns about 1% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 3% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$180.2M1$163.3M2$241.1M3$292.1M4$302.4M4
Net income$11.7M5−$14.8M6−$24.9M7−$40.7M8−$40.2M8
Operating cash flow$29.5M9$4.38M10$22.3M11$13.8M12$9.97M12
Capital expenditure$37M13$170.9M14$148.6M15$52.6M16$12.7M16
Free cash flow (derived)−$7.49M9−$166.6M10−$126.2M11−$38.7M12−$2.68M12
Total debt$603.2M17$803.7M18$930.3M19$936.3M20$947.3M20
Cash & equivalents$88.7M21$56.6M22$36.2M23$40.2M24$40.7M24
Diluted shares34.9M34.4M34.5M35.0M36.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$0.7
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$11.16
Free cash flow it threw off
−$0.74
Debt you’d be carrying
$262.91

10 shares is a claim on $0.7 of net worth that earned you −$11.16 and generated −$0.74 of cash last year, against $262.91 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
1% avg · 5y
FY21 6%FY22 1%FY23 -0%FY24 0%FY25 0%

It earned an average 1% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+3% shares · 5y

Share count is up 3% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 57% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000891482-23-000014 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000891482-24-000007 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000891482-25-000009 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000891482-26-000007 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000891482-23-000014 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000891482-24-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000891482-25-000009 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000891482-26-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000891482-23-000014 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000891482-24-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000891482-25-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000891482-26-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000891482-23-000014 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000891482-24-000007 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000891482-25-000009 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000891482-26-000007 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000891482-23-000014 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000891482-24-000007 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000891482-25-000009 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000891482-26-000007 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  21. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000891482-23-000014 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  22. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000891482-24-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  23. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000891482-25-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  24. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000891482-26-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)