MeritValue

FLEX LTD.

FLEXdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

FLEX LTD. earns about 10% on invested capital, barely covering its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 22% of its shares over 5 years. The estimate methods put fair value between $24.12 and $152.46 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue$24.6B1$28.5B2$26.4B3$25.8B3$27.9B3
Net income$936M4$793M5$1.01B6$838M6$880M6
Operating cash flow$1.02B7$950M8$1.33B9$1.51B9$1.69B9
Capital expenditure$443M10$635M11$530M12$438M12$633M12
Free cash flow (derived)$581M7$315M8$796M9$1.07B9$1.05B9
Total debt$8.39B13$7.39B14$6.52B15$7.38B16$7.5B16
Cash & equivalents$2.96B17$3.16B18$2.47B19$2.29B20$2.39B20
Diluted shares483.0M462.0M441.0M398.0M378.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$136.08
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$23.28
Free cash flow it threw off
$27.83
Debt you’d be carrying
$198.47

10 shares is a claim on $136.08 of net worth that earned you $23.28 and generated $27.83 of cash last year, against $198.47 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
10% avg · 5y
FY22 11%FY23 9%FY24 9%FY25 10%FY26 10%

It earned about 10% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — roughly what it costs to fund the business, so the numbers show no clear edge.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−22% shares · 5y

Share count is down 22% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 11% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $24.12 and $152.46 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$152.46
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$1.05B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$77.21
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$1.05B
Earnings Power Value
$24.12
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$880M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$26.71
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $77.21
The three cases
Bear0.0%$26.24
Base20.0%$77.21
Bull20.0%$77.21

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0000866374-24-000021 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0000866374-25-000027 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0000866374-26-000012 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0000866374-24-000021 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0000866374-25-000027 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0000866374-26-000012 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0000866374-24-000021 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0000866374-25-000027 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0000866374-26-000012 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0000866374-24-000021 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0000866374-25-000027 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0000866374-26-000012 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0000866374-23-000028 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0000866374-24-000021 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0000866374-25-000027 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2025-03-31 · accession 0000866374-26-000012 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0000866374-23-000028 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0000866374-24-000021 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0000866374-25-000027 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2025-03-31 · accession 0000866374-26-000012 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)