MeritValue

Fold Holdings, Inc.

FLDdata completeness 75%4 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'capex'; no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

Fold Holdings, Inc. earns about -110% on equity, but has diluted owners by 623% over 4 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue——$23.8M1$31.8M1
Net income$1.12M2$4.44M3−$65.1M4−$69.6M4
Operating cash flow−$1.7M5−$5.08M6−$3.31M7−$16.1M7
Capital expenditure————
Free cash flow (derived)————
Total debt————
Cash & equivalents$72,7538$1.49M9$18.3M10$7.65M10
Diluted shares——5.8M42.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$14.92
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$16.48
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $14.92 of net worth that earned you −$16.48 last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-110% avg · 4y
FY22 —FY23 —FY24 —FY25 -110%

It earned an average -110% on equity over 4 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+623% shares · 4y

Share count is up 623% over 4 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-110808 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-025648 (NetIncomeLoss)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001013762-25-004107 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-110808 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-025648 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001013762-25-004107 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-110808 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-23-024158 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-110808 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-110808 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)