MeritValue

FIRST KEYSTONE CORP

FKYSdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

FIRST KEYSTONE CORP earns about 14% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 5% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $10.24 and $13.37 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$42M1$46.4M2$57M3$71.4M4$77.2M4
Net income$14.7M5$14M6$5.56M7−$13.2M8$6.15M8
Operating cash flow$15.3M9$18.2M10$5.91M11$8.65M12$11.2M12
Capital expenditure$492,00013$1.89M14$1.66M15$1.73M16$313,00016
Free cash flow (derived)$14.8M9$16.3M10$4.25M11$6.92M12$10.9M12
Total debt$54.8M17$306.8M18$153.5M19$134.4M20$136.8M20
Cash & equivalents$61.3M21$10.7M22$17M23$17.3M24$121.2M24
Diluted shares5.9M6.0M6.1M6.2M6.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$181.59
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$9.88
Free cash flow it threw off
$17.43
Debt you’d be carrying
$219.8

10 shares is a claim on $181.59 of net worth that earned you $9.88 and generated $17.43 of cash last year, against $219.8 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
14% avg · 5y
FY21 13%FY22 5%FY23 12%FY24 7%FY25 33%

It earned about 14% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+5% shares · 5y

Share count is up 5% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 150% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $10.24 and $13.37 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$12.17
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$6.92M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$13.37
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$6.92M
Earnings Power Value
$10.24
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$6.15M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$20.11
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $13.37
The three cases
Bear0.0%$13.37
Base0.0%$13.37
Bull5.0%$17.21

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000737875-23-000015 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000737875-24-000013 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000737875-25-000012 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000737875-26-000009 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000737875-23-000015 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000737875-24-000013 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000737875-25-000012 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000737875-26-000009 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000737875-23-000015 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000737875-24-000013 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000737875-25-000012 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000737875-26-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000737875-23-000015 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000737875-24-000013 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000737875-25-000012 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000737875-26-000009 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000737875-23-000015 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000737875-24-000013 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000737875-25-000012 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000737875-26-000009 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  21. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000737875-23-000015 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  22. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000737875-24-000013 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  23. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000737875-25-000012 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  24. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000737875-26-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)