NATIONAL BEVERAGE CORP
FIZZdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on fileNATIONAL BEVERAGE CORP earns about 71% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $19.55 and $41.63 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | FY 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.14B1 | $1.17B2 | $1.19B3 | $1.2B3 | $1.18B3 |
| Net income | $158.5M4 | $142.2M5 | $176.7M6 | $186.8M6 | $183.6M6 |
| Operating cash flow | $133.1M7 | $161.7M8 | $197.9M9 | $206.7M9 | $181.3M9 |
| Capital expenditure | $29M10 | $22M11 | $30.3M12 | $36.3M12 | $25.1M12 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $104.1M7 | $139.7M8 | $167.6M9 | $170.4M9 | $156.1M9 |
| Total debt | $30M13 | $013 | — | — | — |
| Cash & equivalents | $48.1M14 | $158.1M15 | $327M16 | $193.8M17 | $349.5M17 |
| Diluted shares | 93.6M | 93.6M | 93.6M | 93.7M | 93.7M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $67.87 of net worth that earned you $19.61 and generated $16.67 of cash last year.
It earned about 71% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has fallen 100% — deleveraging.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $19.55 and $41.63 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth6.3%
- fcfBase$167.6M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth6.3%
- fcfBase$167.6M
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$176.7M
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $29.3 |
| Base | 6.3% | $37.23 |
| Bull | 11.3% | $44.97 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 6.3%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 10-K · period ending 2022-04-30 · accession 0001437749-24-021311 (Revenues)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-04-29 · accession 0001437749-25-022007 (Revenues)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-04-27 · accession 0001437749-26-022315 (Revenues)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-04-30 · accession 0001437749-24-021311 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-04-29 · accession 0001437749-25-022007 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-04-27 · accession 0001437749-26-022315 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-04-30 · accession 0001437749-24-021311 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-04-29 · accession 0001437749-25-022007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-04-27 · accession 0001437749-26-022315 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-04-30 · accession 0001437749-24-021311 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-04-29 · accession 0001437749-25-022007 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-04-27 · accession 0001437749-26-022315 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-04-30 · accession 0001437749-23-018790 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-04-30 · accession 0001437749-23-018790 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-04-29 · accession 0001437749-24-021311 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-04-27 · accession 0001437749-25-022007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2025-05-03 · accession 0001437749-26-022315 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)