MeritValue

COMFORT SYSTEMS USA INC

FIXdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

COMFORT SYSTEMS USA INC earns about 32% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 3% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $94.63 and $1,262.42 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$3.07B1$4.14B2$5.21B3$7.03B3$9.1B3
Net income$143.3M4$245.9M5$323.4M6$522.4M6$1.02B6
Operating cash flow$180.2M7$301.5M8$639.6M9$849.1M9$1.19B9
Capital expenditure$22.3M10$48.4M11$94.8M12$111.1M12$154.9M12
Free cash flow (derived)$157.8M7$253.2M8$544.7M9$738M9$1.03B9
Total debt$776.1M13$256.2M14$88.4M15$136.7M16$290.5M16
Cash & equivalents$58.8M17$57.2M18$205.2M19$549.9M20$981.9M20
Diluted shares36.5M36.0M35.9M35.8M35.4M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$691.49
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$288.75
Free cash flow it threw off
$291.26
Debt you’d be carrying
$82.02

10 shares is a claim on $691.49 of net worth that earned you $288.75 and generated $291.26 of cash last year, against $82.02 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
32% avg · 5y
FY21 10%FY22 21%FY23 29%FY24 41%FY25 59%

It earned about 32% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−3% shares · 5y

Share count is down 3% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 63% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $94.63 and $1,262.42 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$1,262.42
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$738M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$698.96
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$738M
Earnings Power Value
$94.63
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$323.4M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$211.97
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $698.96
The three cases
Bear0.0%$317.27
Base20.0%$698.96
Bull20.0%$698.96

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001529 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001222 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-017530 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001529 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001222 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-017530 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001529 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001222 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-017530 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001529 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001222 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-017530 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-001757 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001529 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001222 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-017530 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-001757 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001529 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001222 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-017530 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)