Five9, Inc.
FIVNdata completeness 88%14 fiscal years on fileFive9, Inc. earns about -20% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 30% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $39.97 and $70.94 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $609.6M1 | $778.8M2 | $910.5M3 | $1.04B3 | $1.15B3 |
| Net income | −$53M4 | −$94.7M5 | −$81.8M6 | −$12.8M6 | $39.4M6 |
| Operating cash flow | $29M7 | $88.9M8 | $128.8M9 | $143.2M9 | $226.2M9 |
| Capital expenditure | $42.2M10 | $52.3M11 | $31.2M12 | $42.4M12 | $25M12 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | −$13.2M7 | $36.6M8 | $97.6M9 | $100.8M9 | $201.2M9 |
| Total debt | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cash & equivalents | $90.9M13 | $180.5M14 | $143.2M14 | $362.5M14 | $232.1M14 |
| Diluted shares | 67.5M | 69.9M | 72.0M | 74.5M | 88.0M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $89.3 of net worth that earned you $4.48 and generated $22.87 of cash last year.
It earned about -20% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is up 30% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $39.97 and $70.94 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth20.0%
- fcfBase$100.8M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth20.0%
- fcfBase$100.8M
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $19 |
| Base | 20.0% | $39.97 |
| Bull | 20.0% | $39.97 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001288847-24-000012 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001288847-25-000028 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001288847-26-000023 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001288847-24-000012 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001288847-25-000028 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001288847-26-000023 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001288847-24-000012 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001288847-25-000028 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001288847-26-000023 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001288847-24-000012 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001288847-25-000028 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001288847-26-000023 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001288847-25-000028 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001288847-26-000023 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)