MeritValue

FIVE BELOW, INC

FIVEdata completeness 88%16 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

FIVE BELOW, INC earns about 23% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $52.12 and $190.1 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue$2.85B1$3.08B2$3.56B3$3.88B3$4.76B3
Net income$278.8M4$261.5M5$301.1M6$253.6M6$358.6M6
Operating cash flow$327.9M7$314.9M8$499.6M9$430.6M9$586.4M9
Capital expenditure$288.2M10$252M11$335.1M12$324M12$174.7M12
Free cash flow (derived)$39.7M7$63M8$164.6M9$106.7M9$411.7M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$65M13$332.3M14$179.7M14$331.7M14$723.7M14
Diluted shares56.3M55.7M55.6M55.2M55.4M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$395.64
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$64.69
Free cash flow it threw off
$74.26
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $395.64 of net worth that earned you $64.69 and generated $74.26 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
23% avg · 5y
FY22 26%FY23 25%FY24 21%FY25 17%FY26 24%

It earned about 23% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−2% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $52.12 and $190.1 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$190.1
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$164.6M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$109.84
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$164.6M
Earnings Power Value
$52.12
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$278.8M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$75.89
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $109.84
The three cases
Bear0.0%$55.47
Base20.0%$109.84
Bull20.0%$109.84

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0001177609-24-000008 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0001177609-25-000009 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0001177609-26-000010 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0001177609-24-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0001177609-25-000009 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0001177609-26-000010 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0001177609-24-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0001177609-25-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0001177609-26-000010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0001177609-24-000008 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0001177609-25-000009 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0001177609-26-000010 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0001177609-25-000009 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0001177609-26-000010 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)