MeritValue

FIFTH THIRD BANCORP

FITBdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'epsDiluted'

The thesis, from the filings

FIFTH THIRD BANCORP earns about 16% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 5% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $37.69 and $282.83 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$600M1$589M1$577M1$10.4B2$9.9B2
Net income$2.77B3$2.45B4$2.35B5$2.31B5$2.52B5
Operating cash flow$2.7B6$6.43B7$4.51B8$2.82B8$4.51B8
Capital expenditure$309M9$348M10$491M11$414M11$584M11
Free cash flow (derived)$2.4B6$6.08B7$4.02B8$2.41B8$3.93B8
Total debt$11.8B12$13.7B13$16.4B14$19B15$14.5B15
Cash & equivalents$2.99B16$3.47B17$3.14B17$3.01B17$3.5B17
Diluted shares711.2M695.0M687.7M687.3M672.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$323.03
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$37.5
Free cash flow it threw off
$58.44
Debt you’d be carrying
$215.84

10 shares is a claim on $323.03 of net worth that earned you $37.5 and generated $58.44 of cash last year, against $215.84 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
16% avg · 5y
FY21 10%FY22 12%FY23 17%FY24 19%FY25 22%

It earned about 16% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−5% shares · 5y

Share count is down 5% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 23% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $37.69 and $282.83 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$282.83
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth17.9%
  • fcfBase$3.93B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$159.57
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth17.9%
  • fcfBase$3.93B
Earnings Power Value
$37.69
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$2.45B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years17.9%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $159.57
The three cases
Bear0.0%$67.11
Base17.9%$159.57
Bull20.0%$174.15

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 17.9%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000035527-24-000088 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000035527-26-000124 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000035527-24-000088 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000035527-25-000079 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000035527-26-000124 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000035527-24-000088 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000035527-25-000079 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000035527-26-000124 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000035527-24-000088 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000035527-25-000079 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000035527-26-000124 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000035527-23-000122 (LongTermDebt)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000035527-24-000088 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000035527-25-000079 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000035527-26-000124 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000035527-25-000079 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000035527-26-000124 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)