MeritValue

FISERV INC

FISVdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

FISERV INC earns about 11% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 18% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $57.91 and $237.73 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$16.2B1$17.7B2$19.1B3$20.5B3$21.2B3
Net income$1.33B4$2.53B5$3.07B6$3.13B6$3.48B6
Operating cash flow$4.03B7$4.62B8$5.16B9$6.63B9$6.06B9
Capital expenditure$1.16B10$1.48B11$1.39B12$1.57B12$1.76B12
Free cash flow (derived)$2.87B7$3.14B8$3.77B9$5.06B9$4.3B9
Total debt$508M13$468M14$755M15$1.11B16$1.24B16
Cash & equivalents$835M17$902M18$1.2B19$1.24B19$798M19
Diluted shares671.6M647.9M615.9M582.1M549.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$469.8
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$63.39
Free cash flow it threw off
$78.31
Debt you’d be carrying
$22.57

10 shares is a claim on $469.8 of net worth that earned you $63.39 and generated $78.31 of cash last year, against $22.57 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
11% avg · 5y
FY21 6%FY22 10%FY23 13%FY24 14%FY25 13%

It earned about 11% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−18% shares · 5y

Share count is down 18% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 144% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $57.91 and $237.73 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$237.73
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth11.1%
  • fcfBase$4.3B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$178.13
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth11.1%
  • fcfBase$4.3B
Earnings Power Value
$57.91
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$3.07B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$81.86
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years11.1%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $178.13
The three cases
Bear0.0%$111.08
Base11.1%$178.13
Bull16.1%$218.01

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 11.1%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000798354-22-000004 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000798354-25-000047 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000798354-26-000009 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000798354-24-000037 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000798354-25-000047 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000798354-26-000009 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000798354-24-000037 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000798354-25-000047 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000798354-26-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000798354-24-000037 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000798354-25-000047 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000798354-26-000009 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000798354-23-000004 (DebtCurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000798354-24-000037 (DebtCurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000798354-25-000047 (DebtCurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000798354-26-000009 (DebtCurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000798354-24-000037 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000798354-25-000047 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000798354-26-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)