MeritValue

DEEP FISSION, INC.

FISNdata completeness 75%4 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'revenue'; no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'; no data for concept 'incomeTaxExpense'; no data for concept 'pretaxIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

DEEP FISSION, INC. earns about -142% on equity, but has diluted owners by 407% over 4 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue————
Net income−$49,4081−$47,6252−$5.71M3−$61M3
Operating cash flow−$40,0564−$46,2775−$2.8M6−$13.1M6
Capital expenditure——$2,6577$43,4367
Free cash flow (derived)——−$2.8M6−$13.1M6
Total debt————
Cash & equivalents$698$945,8029$6.73M10$23.7M10
Diluted shares5.0M5.0M10.0M25.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$8.8
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$24.08
Free cash flow it threw off
−$5.17
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $8.8 of net worth that earned you −$24.08 and generated −$5.17 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-142% avg · 4y
FY22 —FY23 -10%FY24 —FY25 -274%

It earned an average -142% on equity over 4 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+407% shares · 4y

Share count is up 407% over 4 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 2 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 2 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-028655 (NetIncomeLoss)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001013762-25-003765 (NetIncomeLoss)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-043870 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-028655 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001013762-25-003765 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-043870 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-043870 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-23-025556 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-043870 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-043870 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)