MeritValue

FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS INC

FISIdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS INC earns about 18% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 27% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $28.85 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$167.2M1$196.1M2$286.1M3$313.2M3$333M3
Net income$77.7M4$56.6M5$50.3M6−$41.6M6$74.9M6
Operating cash flow$73M7$133.6M8$10.9M9$77.1M9$18.8M9
Capital expenditure$9.4M10$8.37M11$2.99M12$4.97M12$5.55M12
Free cash flow (derived)$63.6M7$125.2M8$7.9M9$72.2M9$13.3M9
Total debt$103.9M13$279.2M14$309.5M15$223.8M16$302.7M16
Cash & equivalents——$124.4M17$87.3M18$108.8M18
Diluted shares15.9M15.5M15.5M15.7M20.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$309.51
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$36.85
Free cash flow it threw off
$6.52
Debt you’d be carrying
$148.96

10 shares is a claim on $309.51 of net worth that earned you $36.85 and generated $6.52 of cash last year, against $148.96 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
18% avg · 5y
FY21 14%FY22 12%FY23 23%FY24 11%FY25 29%

It earned an average 18% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+27% shares · 5y

Share count is up 27% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 191% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$13.3M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$13.3M
Earnings Power Value
$28.85
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$56.6M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$50.14
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-030754 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-037918 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-098467 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-030754 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-037918 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-098467 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-030754 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-037918 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-098467 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-030754 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-037918 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-098467 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-007010 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-030754 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-037918 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-098467 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-037918 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-098467 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)