MeritValue

Firy Inc.

FIRYdata completeness 100%8 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Firy Inc. earns about -36% on invested capital, and has bought back 96% of its shares over 5 years. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$380.2M1$269.7M2$152.1M3$92.9M4$104.5M4
Net income−$187.9M5−$438.9M6−$101.4M7−$46.8M8−$70.4M8
Operating cash flow−$180.2M9−$179.6M10−$71.8M11−$7.07M12−$68.9M12
Capital expenditure$3.24M13$1.89M14$13.2M15$668,00016$1.4M16
Free cash flow (derived)−$183.4M9−$181.5M10−$85M11−$7.74M12−$70.3M12
Total debt$557.8M17$545.6M18$247.9M19$251.3M20$255.2M20
Cash & equivalents$241.3M21$362.5M22$302M23$271.9M24$194.5M24
Diluted shares388.5M20.5M20.9M17.8M15.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$71.66
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$45.12
Free cash flow it threw off
−$45.07
Debt you’d be carrying
$163.52

10 shares is a claim on $71.66 of net worth that earned you −$45.12 and generated −$45.07 of cash last year, against $163.52 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-36% avg · 5y
FY21 -18%FY22 -68%FY23 -40%FY24 -24%FY25 -32%

It earned an average -36% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−96% shares · 5y

Share count is down 96% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 54% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001801661-23-000005 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001801661-24-000100 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001801661-25-000050 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001801661-26-000020 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001801661-23-000005 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001801661-24-000100 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001801661-25-000050 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001801661-26-000020 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001801661-23-000005 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001801661-24-000100 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001801661-25-000050 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001801661-26-000020 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001801661-23-000005 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001801661-24-000100 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001801661-25-000050 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001801661-26-000020 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001801661-23-000005 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001801661-24-000100 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001801661-25-000050 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001801661-26-000020 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  21. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001801661-23-000005 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  22. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001801661-24-000100 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  23. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001801661-25-000050 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  24. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001801661-26-000020 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)