MeritValue

FTAI Infrastructure Inc.

FIPdata completeness 100%6 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

FTAI Infrastructure Inc. earns about -2% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 16% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$120.2M1$262M2$320.5M3$331.5M3$502.5M3
Net income−$106.3M4−$187.5M5−$159.8M6−$266.1M6−$152.1M6
Operating cash flow−$61.7M7−$42.7M8$5.51M9−$15.3M9−$118M9
Capital expenditure$140.9M10$217.1M11$99M12$79.5M12$280.5M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$202.6M7−$259.8M8−$93.5M9−$94.8M9−$398.5M9
Total debt$1.44B13$2.46B14$2.68B15$3.22B16$7.61B16
Cash & equivalents$49.9M17$36.5M18$29.4M19$27.8M20$57.4M20
Diluted shares99.4M102.7M103.0M108.2M115.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$1.85
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$13.2
Free cash flow it threw off
−$34.59
Debt you’d be carrying
$660.83

10 shares is a claim on $1.85 of net worth that earned you −$13.2 and generated −$34.59 of cash last year, against $660.83 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-2% avg · 5y
FY21 -3%FY22 -3%FY23 -1%FY24 -3%FY25 1%

It earned an average -2% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+16% shares · 5y

Share count is up 16% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 430% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001899883-24-000012 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001899883-25-000007 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001899883-26-000015 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001899883-24-000012 (ProfitLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001899883-25-000007 (ProfitLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001899883-26-000015 (ProfitLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001899883-24-000012 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001899883-25-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001899883-26-000015 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001899883-24-000012 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001899883-25-000007 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001899883-26-000015 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001899883-23-000002 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001899883-24-000012 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001899883-25-000007 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001899883-26-000015 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001899883-23-000002 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001899883-24-000012 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001899883-25-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001899883-26-000015 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)