FinVolution Group
FINVdata completeness 100%9 fiscal years on fileFinVolution Group earns about 27% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 10% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $2.56 and $11.83 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | — | — | — | $1.79B1 | $1.94B2 |
| Net income | $393.7M3 | $328.6M4 | $329.7M5 | $326.5M6 | $363.6M7 |
| Operating cash flow | $98.9M8 | $39M9 | $199.1M10 | $396.4M11 | $267.1M12 |
| Capital expenditure | $8.67M13 | $7.65M14 | $75.8M15 | $3.8M16 | $12M17 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $90.2M8 | $31.3M9 | $123.3M10 | $392.6M11 | $255M12 |
| Total debt | — | — | $811,00018 | $766,00019 | $37.2M20 |
| Cash & equivalents | $693.3M21 | $527.2M22 | $699.9M23 | $640.2M24 | $612.8M25 |
| Diluted shares | 1.48B | 1.45B | 1.40B | 1.32B | 1.33B |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $17.74 of net worth that earned you $2.72 and generated $1.91 of cash last year, against $0.28 of debt.
It earned about 27% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is down 10% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 4484% over the same window.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $2.56 and $11.83 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth20.0%
- fcfBase$255M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth20.0%
- fcfBase$255M
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$329.7M
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $3.16 |
| Base | 20.0% | $6.66 |
| Bull | 20.0% | $6.66 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
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