MeritValue

Figure Technology Solutions, Inc.

FIGRdata completeness 88%3 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'capex'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

Figure Technology Solutions, Inc. earns about -24% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 176% over 3 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $1.26 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$209.5M1$340.9M1$506.9M1
Net income−$47.9M2$17.2M2$133.9M2
Operating cash flow−$33.4M3−$127M3$62.6M3
Capital expenditure———
Free cash flow (derived)———
Total debt—$641.1M4$787.4M4
Cash & equivalents$175.8M5$289.7M6$1.2B6
Diluted shares51.3M72.6M141.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$86.66
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$9.44
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$55.53

10 shares is a claim on $86.66 of net worth that earned you $9.44 last year, against $55.53 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-24% avg · 3y
FY23 -89%FY24 3%FY25 14%

It earned an average -24% on invested capital over 3 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+176% shares · 3y

Share count is up 176% over 3 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 23% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$1.26
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$17.2M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$9.26
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0002064124-26-000009 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0002064124-26-000009 (NetIncomeLoss)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0002064124-26-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0002064124-26-000009 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0002064124-26-000009 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0002064124-26-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)