Figma, Inc.

FIGdata completeness 88%3 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

Figma, Inc. earns about -81% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 80% over 3 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $14.16 and $15.26 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$504.9M1$749M1$1.06B1
Net income$737.8M2−$732.1M2−$1.25B2
Operating cash flow$1.05B3−$61.7M3$250.7M3
Capital expenditure$3.74M4$1.98M4$4.44M4
Free cash flow (derived)$1.04B3−$63.7M3$246.2M3
Total debt
Cash & equivalents$1.27B5$487M5$403.5M5
Diluted shares187.2M195.6M337.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$44.82
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$37.1
Free cash flow it threw off
$7.31
Debt you’d be carrying

10 shares is a claim on $44.82 of net worth that earned you −$37.1 and generated $7.31 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-81% avg · 3y
FY23 FY24 -75%FY25 -87%

It earned about -81% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+80% shares · 3y

Share count is up 80% over 3 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $14.16 and $15.26 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$15.26
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$246.2M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$14.16
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$246.2M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $14.16
The three cases
Bear0.0%$11.64
Base5.0%$14.16
Bull10.0%$17.19

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-009228 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-009228 (NetIncomeLoss)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-009228 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-009228 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-009228 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)