MeritValue

FAIR ISAAC CORP

FICOdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

FAIR ISAAC CORP earns about 31% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 16% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $181.16 and $757.56 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.32B1$1.38B2$1.51B3$1.72B3$1.99B3
Net income$392.1M4$373.5M5$429.4M6$512.8M6$651.9M6
Operating cash flow$423.8M7$509.5M8$468.9M9$633M9$778.8M9
Capital expenditure$7.57M10$6.03M11$4.24M12$8.88M12$8.92M12
Free cash flow (derived)$416.2M7$503.4M8$464.7M9$624.1M9$769.9M9
Total debt$2.01B13$1.85B14$1.86B15$4.43B16$6.11B16
Cash & equivalents$195.4M17$133.2M18$136.8M19$150.7M20$134.1M20
Diluted shares29.3M26.3M25.4M25.1M24.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
−$710.8
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$265.44
Free cash flow it threw off
$313.46
Debt you’d be carrying
$2,488.25

10 shares is a claim on −$710.8 of net worth that earned you $265.44 and generated $313.46 of cash last year, against $2,488.25 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
31% avg · 5y
FY21 25%FY22 47%FY23 49%FY24 18%FY25 15%

It earned about 31% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−16% shares · 5y

Share count is down 16% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 204% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $181.16 and $757.56 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$757.56
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth14.5%
  • fcfBase$624.1M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$422.93
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth14.5%
  • fcfBase$624.1M
Earnings Power Value
$181.16
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$429.4M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
book value / share count missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years14.5%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $422.93
The three cases
Bear0.0%$119.68
Base14.5%$422.93
Bull19.5%$567.77

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 14.5%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000814547-23-000022 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001628280-24-045719 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000814547-25-000030 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000814547-23-000022 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001628280-24-045719 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000814547-25-000030 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000814547-23-000022 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001628280-24-045719 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000814547-25-000030 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000814547-23-000022 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001628280-24-045719 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000814547-25-000030 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000814547-22-000016 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000814547-23-000022 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001628280-24-045719 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-30 · accession 0000814547-25-000030 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000814547-22-000016 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000814547-23-000022 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001628280-24-045719 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-30 · accession 0000814547-25-000030 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)