MeritValue

FIRST INTERSTATE BANCSYSTEM INC

FIBKdata completeness 75%17 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'capex'

The thesis, from the filings

FIRST INTERSTATE BANCSYSTEM INC earns about 28% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 67% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $22.78 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$506.5M1$1.02B2$1.28B3$1.3B3$1.18B3
Net income$192.1M4$202.2M5$257.5M6$226M6$302.1M6
Operating cash flow$282.3M7$534.4M8$428M9$355M9$305.6M9
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt$98.7M10$98.9M11$99M11——
Cash & equivalents$2.34B12$870.5M13$578M13$896.6M13$1.31B13
Diluted shares61.7M103.3M103.8M103.2M102.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$335.21
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$29.38
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $335.21 of net worth that earned you $29.38 last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
28% avg · 5y
FY21 —FY22 11%FY23 21%FY24 36%FY25 44%

It earned an average 28% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+67% shares · 5y

Share count is up 67% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$22.78
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$226M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$47.09
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000860413-24-000016 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000860413-25-000022 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000860413-26-000011 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000860413-24-000016 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000860413-25-000022 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000860413-26-000011 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000860413-24-000016 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000860413-25-000022 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000860413-26-000011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000860413-23-000045 (LongTermDebt)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000860413-24-000016 (LongTermDebt)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000860413-25-000022 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000860413-26-000011 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)