MeritValue

FIRST HORIZON CORP

FHNdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

FIRST HORIZON CORP earns about 21% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 7% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $18.25 and $139.58 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue—$3.21B1$3.47B2$3.19B2$3.42B2
Net income$999M3$900M4$897M5$775M5$982M5
Operating cash flow$725M6$2.29B7$1.3B8$1.27B8$628M8
Capital expenditure$37M9$28M10$37M11$44M11$33M11
Free cash flow (derived)$688M6$2.26B7$1.26B8$1.22B8$595M8
Total debt$2.12B12$2.51B13$2.55B14$3.4B15$3.25B15
Cash & equivalents$1.79B16$1.54B17$1.73B17$1.54B17$1.6B17
Diluted shares551.2M566.0M561.7M544.3M511.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$173.09
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$19.21
Free cash flow it threw off
$11.64
Debt you’d be carrying
$63.67

10 shares is a claim on $173.09 of net worth that earned you $19.21 and generated $11.64 of cash last year, against $63.67 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
21% avg · 5y
FY21 13%FY22 12%FY23 22%FY24 26%FY25 29%

It earned about 21% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−7% shares · 5y

Share count is down 7% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 53% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $18.25 and $139.58 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$139.58
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$1.22B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$74.83
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$1.22B
Earnings Power Value
$18.25
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$900M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$26.99
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $74.83
The three cases
Bear0.0%$30.97
Base20.0%$74.83
Bull20.0%$74.83

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000036966-25-000024 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000036966-26-000051 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000036966-24-000015 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000036966-25-000024 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000036966-26-000051 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000036966-24-000015 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000036966-25-000024 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000036966-26-000051 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000036966-24-000015 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000036966-25-000024 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000036966-26-000051 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000036966-23-000016 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000036966-24-000015 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000036966-25-000024 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000036966-26-000051 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000036966-25-000024 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000036966-26-000051 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)