MeritValue

FORGE INNOVATION DEVELOPMENT CORP.

FGNVdata completeness 100%9 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

FORGE INNOVATION DEVELOPMENT CORP. earns about -105% on equity, but has diluted owners by 10% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2020FY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024
Revenue$36,0001$36,0002$122,6043$438,4744$668,3394
Net income−$320,1295−$262,4346−$34,1127−$920,3558−$1.27M8
Operating cash flow−$271,7879−$154,59910−$30,83511−$337,83712−$182,57412
Capital expenditure—$21,14013$9,04014$2,10515$83,06415
Free cash flow (derived)—−$175,73910−$39,87511−$339,94212−$265,63812
Total debt—$9,47816$36,22217$28,17418$20,12318
Cash & equivalents$236,58619$60,36420$11,73421$4,89222$32,40322
Diluted shares45.6M45.6M45.6M48.6M50.4M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$0.21
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$0.25
Free cash flow it threw off
−$0.05
Debt you’d be carrying
$0

10 shares is a claim on $0.21 of net worth that earned you −$0.25 and generated −$0.05 of cash last year, against $0 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-105% avg · 5y
FY20 -156%FY21 —FY22 —FY23 -40%FY24 -120%

It earned an average -105% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+10% shares · 5y

Share count is up 10% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 112% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001493152-22-008154 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-23-010220 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-030123 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001641172-25-004791 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001493152-22-008154 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-23-010220 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-030123 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001641172-25-004791 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001493152-22-008154 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-23-010220 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-030123 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001641172-25-004791 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-23-010220 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-030123 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001641172-25-004791 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-23-010220 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-030123 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001641172-25-004791 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001493152-22-008154 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-23-010220 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  21. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-030123 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  22. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001641172-25-004791 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)