MeritValue

FGI Industries Ltd.

FGIdata completeness 100%5 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

FGI Industries Ltd. earns about 10% on invested capital, and has bought back 73% of its shares over 5 years. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $3.96 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$181.9M1$161.7M2$117.2M3$131.8M4$130.5M4
Net income$7.91M5$3.68M6$733,6047−$1.2M8−$6.14M8
Operating cash flow−$3.22M9$980,26510$2.21M11−$7.43M12$673,22012
Capital expenditure$57,83913$1.06M14$840,38715$2.21M16$885,74016
Free cash flow (derived)−$3.28M9−$83,95810$1.37M11−$9.63M12−$212,52012
Total debt$14.7M17$9.8M18$6.96M19$14.5M20$11.9M20
Cash & equivalents$3.88M21$10.1M22$7.8M23$4.6M24$1.9M25
Diluted shares7.0M9.3M9.8M1.9M1.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$90.11
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$32.01
Free cash flow it threw off
−$1.11
Debt you’d be carrying
$61.88

10 shares is a claim on $90.11 of net worth that earned you −$32.01 and generated −$1.11 of cash last year, against $61.88 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
10% avg · 5y
FY21 45%FY22 19%FY23 5%FY24 -6%FY25 -13%

It earned an average 10% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−73% shares · 5y

Share count is down 73% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 19% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$3.96
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$733,604
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-006088 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-003958 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-015656 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-024682 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-006088 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-003958 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-015656 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-024682 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-006088 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-003958 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-015656 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-024682 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-006088 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-003958 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-015656 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-024682 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-006088 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-003958 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-015656 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-024682 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  21. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-003958 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  22. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-006088 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  23. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-003958 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  24. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-015656 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  25. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-024682 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)