First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc.
FGBIdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on fileData notes: no data for concept 'epsDiluted'
First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. earns about 147% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 31% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $9.22 and $54.17 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $111.9M1 | $136.6M2 | $183M3 | $221.7M4 | $213.3M4 |
| Net income | $27.3M5 | $28.9M6 | $9.22M7 | $12.4M8 | −$56M8 |
| Operating cash flow | $26.5M9 | $36.9M10 | $21.7M11 | $33.7M12 | −$8.28M12 |
| Capital expenditure | $2.2M13 | $2.64M14 | $14.9M15 | $3.04M16 | $1.7M16 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $24.3M9 | $34.2M10 | $6.86M11 | $30.7M12 | −$9.98M12 |
| Total debt | $49.6M17 | $183.3M18 | $275.4M19 | $201.9M20 | $186.1M21 |
| Cash & equivalents | $261.9M22 | $83.2M23 | $286.5M24 | $564.2M24 | $845.7M24 |
| Diluted shares | 10.7M | 10.7M | 11.2M | 12.5M | 14.0M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $161.75 of net worth that earned you −$40.06 and generated −$7.13 of cash last year, against $133.08 of debt.
It earned about 147% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is up 31% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 275% over the same window.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $9.22 and $54.17 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth0.0%
- fcfBase$6.86M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth0.0%
- fcfBase$6.86M
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$12.4M
- growthAssumed0.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $54.17 |
| Base | 0.0% | $54.17 |
| Bull | 5.0% | $55.87 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001408534-23-000018 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001408534-24-000021 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001408534-25-000015 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001408534-26-000021 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001408534-23-000018 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001408534-24-000021 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001408534-25-000015 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001408534-26-000021 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001408534-23-000018 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001408534-24-000021 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001408534-25-000015 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001408534-26-000021 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001408534-23-000018 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001408534-24-000021 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001408534-25-000015 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001408534-26-000021 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001408534-22-000022 (LongTermDebt)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001408534-23-000018 (LongTermDebt)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001408534-24-000021 (LongTermDebt)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001408534-25-000015 (LongTermDebt)
- 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001408534-26-000021 (LongTermDebt)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001408534-24-000021 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001408534-25-000015 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001408534-26-000021 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)