MeritValue

F5, INC.

FFIVdata completeness 88%18 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'gainsOnRealEstateSales'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'; no data for concept 'dividendsPaid'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

F5, INC. earns about 22% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 5% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $68.67 and $334.69 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$2.6B1$2.7B2$2.81B3$2.82B3$3.09B3
Net income$331.2M4$322.2M5$394.9M6$566.8M6$692.4M6
Operating cash flow$645.2M7$442.6M8$653.4M9$792.4M9$949.7M9
Capital expenditure$30.7M10$33.6M11$54.2M12$30.4M12$43.3M12
Free cash flow (derived)$614.5M7$409M8$599.2M9$762M9$906.4M9
Total debt$369M13$349.8M13$014——
Cash & equivalents$581M15$758M16$797.2M17$1.07B18$1.34B18
Diluted shares62.1M61.1M60.3M59.4M58.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$612.09
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$117.98
Free cash flow it threw off
$154.46
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $612.09 of net worth that earned you $117.98 and generated $154.46 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
22% avg · 5y
FY21 15%FY22 16%FY23 20%FY24 28%FY25 31%

It earned about 22% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−5% shares · 5y

Share count is down 5% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 100% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $68.67 and $334.69 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$334.69
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.8%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth8.2%
  • fcfBase$762M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$281.05
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.8%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth8.2%
  • fcfBase$762M
Earnings Power Value
$68.67
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.8%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$394.9M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$128.58
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years8.2%
Discount rate (WACC)9.08%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $281.05
The three cases
Bear0.0%$204.39
Base8.2%$281.05
Bull13.2%$339.67

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 8.2%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001048695-23-000039 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001048695-24-000185 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001048695-25-000157 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001048695-23-000039 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001048695-24-000185 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001048695-25-000157 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001048695-23-000039 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001048695-24-000185 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001048695-25-000157 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001048695-23-000039 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001048695-24-000185 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001048695-25-000157 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001048695-22-000033 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001048695-23-000039 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001048695-22-000033 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001048695-23-000039 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001048695-24-000185 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-30 · accession 0001048695-25-000157 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)