MeritValue

FIRST FINANCIAL BANKSHARES INC

FFINdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

FIRST FINANCIAL BANKSHARES INC earns about 41% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $16.44 and $35.85 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$376.4M1$432.9M2$528.1M3$628.9M3$702.5M3
Net income$227.6M4$234.5M5$199M6$223.5M6$253.6M6
Operating cash flow$355.2M7$324.3M8$284.8M9$309.6M9$299.4M9
Capital expenditure$19.2M10$15.8M11$17.3M12$16.7M12$13.4M12
Free cash flow (derived)$335.9M7$308.5M8$267.6M9$292.9M9$286M9
Total debt$671.2M13$23.7M14$22.2M15$135.6M16$21.7M16
Cash & equivalents$528.6M17$330.7M18$536.6M18$763.4M18$1.08B18
Diluted shares143.1M143.2M142.9M143.2M143.4M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$133.66
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$17.68
Free cash flow it threw off
$19.94
Debt you’d be carrying
$1.51

10 shares is a claim on $133.66 of net worth that earned you $17.68 and generated $19.94 of cash last year, against $1.51 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
41% avg · 5y
FY21 12%FY22 27%FY23 32%FY24 59%FY25 77%

It earned about 41% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+0% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has fallen 97% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $16.44 and $35.85 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$33.71
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$286M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$35.85
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$286M
Earnings Power Value
$16.44
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$227.6M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$23.07
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $35.85
The three cases
Bear0.0%$35.85
Base0.0%$35.85
Bull5.0%$42.75

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-019528 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-024666 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-071549 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-019528 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-024666 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-071549 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-019528 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-024666 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-071549 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-019528 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-024666 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-071549 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-003864 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-019528 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-024666 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-071549 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-024666 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-071549 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)