MeritValue

FIRST FINANCIAL BANCORP /OH/

FFBCdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

FIRST FINANCIAL BANCORP /OH/ earns about 15% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $24.66 and $175.3 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$483.2M1$585M2$903M3$1B3$1B3
Net income$205.2M4$217.6M5$255.9M6$228.8M6$255.6M6
Operating cash flow$388.2M7$200.8M8$487M9$262.2M9$337.9M9
Capital expenditure$15.3M10$13.8M11$24.1M12$21.1M12$20.8M12
Free cash flow (derived)$372.8M7$187.1M8$462.8M9$241.1M9$317.1M9
Total debt$706M13$1.63B14$1.28B15$1.1B16$1.19B16
Cash & equivalents$220M17$207.5M18$213.1M18$174.3M18$178.6M18
Diluted shares95.9M94.6M95.1M95.4M96.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$287.99
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$26.58
Free cash flow it threw off
$32.98
Debt you’d be carrying
$123.69

10 shares is a claim on $287.99 of net worth that earned you $26.58 and generated $32.98 of cash last year, against $123.69 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
15% avg · 5y
FY21 8%FY22 8%FY23 14%FY24 22%FY25 20%

It earned about 15% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+0% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has risen 68% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $24.66 and $175.3 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$175.3
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth19.2%
  • fcfBase$317.1M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$93.87
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth19.2%
  • fcfBase$317.1M
Earnings Power Value
$24.66
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$228.8M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$41.52
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years19.2%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $93.87
The three cases
Bear0.0%$36.61
Base19.2%$93.87
Bull20.0%$97.01

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 19.2%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000708955-24-000018 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000708955-25-000012 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000708955-26-000028 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000708955-24-000018 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000708955-25-000012 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000708955-26-000028 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000708955-24-000018 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000708955-25-000012 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000708955-26-000028 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000708955-24-000018 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000708955-25-000012 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000708955-26-000028 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000708955-23-000016 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000708955-24-000018 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000708955-25-000012 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000708955-26-000028 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000708955-25-000012 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000708955-26-000028 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)