MeritValue

FutureFuel Corp.

FFdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

FutureFuel Corp. earns about 9% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $3.66 and $4.47 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$321.4M1$396M2$368.3M3$243.3M3$95.7M3
Net income$26.3M4$15.2M5$37.4M6$15.5M6−$49.4M6
Operating cash flow$44.1M7$52.5M8$21.3M9$24.8M9−$28.7M9
Capital expenditure$1.46M10$4.78M11$6.02M12$14.7M12$17.2M12
Free cash flow (derived)$42.6M7$47.7M8$15.3M9$10.1M9−$46M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$137.5M13$175.6M14$219.4M15$109.5M16$51.3M16
Diluted shares43.8M43.8M43.8M43.8M43.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$35.27
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$11.26
Free cash flow it threw off
−$10.48
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $35.27 of net worth that earned you −$11.26 and generated −$10.48 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
9% avg · 5y
FY21 11%FY22 13%FY23 41%FY24 16%FY25 -38%

It earned about 9% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+0% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $3.66 and $4.47 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$4.22
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$10.1M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$4.47
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$10.1M
Earnings Power Value
$3.66
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$15.5M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $4.47
The three cases
Bear0.0%$4.47
Base0.0%$4.47
Bull5.0%$5.27

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-015973 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-010192 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-008411 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-015973 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-010192 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-008411 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-015973 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-010192 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-008411 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-015973 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-010192 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-008411 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-006484 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-015973 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-010192 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-008411 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)