MeritValue

FORUM ENERGY TECHNOLOGIES, INC.

FETdata completeness 100%16 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

FORUM ENERGY TECHNOLOGIES, INC. earns about -5% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 111% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $76.19 and $84.35 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$541.1M1$699.9M2$738.9M3$816.4M4$791.5M4
Net income−$82.7M5$3.71M6−$18.9M7−$135.3M8−$9.66M8
Operating cash flow−$15.8M9−$17.1M10$8.18M11$92.2M12$70.4M12
Capital expenditure$2.4M13$7.49M14$7.94M15$8.15M16$6.02M16
Free cash flow (derived)−$18.2M9−$24.5M10$239,00011$84M12$64.4M12
Total debt$466.5M17$479.8M18$261.5M19$376.8M20$271.9M20
Cash & equivalents$46.9M21$51M22$46.2M23$44.7M24$34.7M24
Diluted shares5.6M6.0M10.2M12.3M11.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$245.01
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$8.13
Free cash flow it threw off
$54.18
Debt you’d be carrying
$228.78

10 shares is a claim on $245.01 of net worth that earned you −$8.13 and generated $54.18 of cash last year, against $228.78 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-5% avg · 5y
FY21 -9%FY22 1%FY23 -1%FY24 -16%FY25 2%

It earned about -5% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+111% shares · 5y

Share count is up 111% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 42% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $76.19 and $84.35 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$84.35
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$64.4M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$76.19
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$64.4M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $76.19
The three cases
Bear0.0%$57.46
Base5.0%$76.19
Bull10.0%$98.62

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001401257-23-000023 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001401257-24-000038 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001401257-25-000012 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001401257-26-000015 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001401257-23-000023 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001401257-24-000038 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001401257-25-000012 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001401257-26-000015 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001401257-23-000023 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001401257-24-000038 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001401257-25-000012 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001401257-26-000015 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001401257-23-000023 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001401257-24-000038 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001401257-25-000012 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001401257-26-000015 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001401257-23-000023 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001401257-24-000038 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001401257-25-000012 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001401257-26-000015 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  21. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001401257-23-000023 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  22. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001401257-24-000038 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  23. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001401257-25-000012 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  24. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001401257-26-000015 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)