MeritValue

Ferguson Enterprises Inc. /DE/

FERGdata completeness 100%4 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Ferguson Enterprises Inc. /DE/ earns about 25% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 9% of its shares over 4 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $97.41 and $137.07 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$28.6B1$29.7B2$29.6B2$30.8B2
Net income$2.12B3$1.89B4$1.74B4$1.86B4
Operating cash flow$1.15B5$2.72B6$1.87B6$1.91B6
Capital expenditure$290M7$441M8$372M8$305M8
Free cash flow (derived)$859M5$2.28B6$1.5B6$1.6B6
Total debt—$3.82B9$8.02B10$8.73B10
Cash & equivalents$771M11$601M12$571M12$674M12
Diluted shares218.9M207.2M203.5M199.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$292.77
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$93.17
Free cash flow it threw off
$80.47
Debt you’d be carrying
$438.1

10 shares is a claim on $292.77 of net worth that earned you $93.17 and generated $80.47 of cash last year, against $438.1 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
25% avg · 4y
FY22 54%FY23 21%FY24 12%FY25 12%

It earned about 25% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−9% shares · 4y

Share count is down 9% over 4 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 128% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $97.41 and $137.07 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$137.07
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth6.8%
  • fcfBase$1.6B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$113.67
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth6.8%
  • fcfBase$1.6B
Earnings Power Value
$97.41
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$1.87B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$78.35
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years6.8%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $113.67
The three cases
Bear0.0%$74.55
Base6.8%$113.67
Bull11.8%$149.12

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 6.8%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-07-31 · accession 0002011641-24-000005 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-07-31 · accession 0002011641-25-000027 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2022-07-31 · accession 0002011641-24-000005 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2023-07-31 · accession 0002011641-25-000027 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-07-31 · accession 0002011641-24-000005 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-07-31 · accession 0002011641-25-000027 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-07-31 · accession 0002011641-24-000005 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-07-31 · accession 0002011641-25-000027 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-07-31 · accession 0002011641-24-000005 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2024-07-31 · accession 0002011641-25-000027 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-07-31 · accession 0002011641-24-000005 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-07-31 · accession 0002011641-25-000027 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)