MeritValue

Ferrovial N.V.

FERdata completeness 88%4 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'capex'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

Ferrovial N.V. earns about 14% on invested capital, with a roughly flat share count. The applicable estimate puts fair value near €8.84 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue€7.55B1€8.52B2€9.15B2€9.63B2
Net income€188M3€341M4€3.24B4€888M4
Operating cash flow€1B5€1.26B6€1.29B6€1.93B6
Capital expenditure————
Free cash flow (derived)————
Total debt—€11.4B7€11.3B8€10.4B8
Cash & equivalents€5.13B9€4.79B9€4.83B9€4.27B9
Diluted shares723.5M728.3M721.8M720.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
€81.98
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
€12.32
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
€144.69

10 shares is a claim on €81.98 of net worth that earned you €12.32 last year, against €144.69 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
14% avg · 4y
FY22 —FY23 5%FY24 28%FY25 9%

It earned an average 14% on invested capital over 4 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−0% shares · 4y

Share count is roughly flat over 4 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
€8.84
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings€614.5M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
€15.12
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001468522-25-000034 (Revenue)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011789 (Revenue)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001468522-25-000034 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011789 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001468522-25-000034 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011789 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001468522-25-000034 (Borrowings)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011789 (Borrowings)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011789 (CashAndCashEquivalents)