MeritValue

Phoenix New Media Ltd

FENGdata completeness 75%10 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Phoenix New Media Ltd earns about 13% on invested capital. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below. Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2016FY 2017FY 2018FY 2019FY 2020
Revenue$208.1M1$242.1M2$200.3M3$219.9M4$185.3M5
Net income$11.6M6$5.29M7−$9.54M8$104M9$56M10
Operating cash flow$29.3M11$26.6M12−$11.2M13−$47.4M14−$15.8M15
Capital expenditure$4.22M16$4.27M17$8.14M18$12M19$1.85M20
Free cash flow (derived)$25.1M11,16$22.3M12,17−$19.3M13,18−$59.5M14,19−$17.7M15,20
Total debt$51.6M21$50.7M22$38.9M23——
Cash & equivalents$29.2M24$55.8M25$25M26$47.6M27$54.8M27
Diluted shares—————

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom). A derived or summed figure cites every filing line it was built from.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
13% avg · 5y
FY16 4%FY17 2%FY18 -1%FY19 24%FY20 33%

It earned an average 13% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
— shares · 5y

Total debt has fallen 25% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.6.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
no diluted share count
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

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Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F filed 2017-04-28 · period ending 2016-12-31 · accession 0001104659-17-027241 (SalesRevenueNet)
  2. 20-F filed 2018-04-26 · period ending 2017-12-31 · accession 0001104659-18-026859 (SalesRevenueNet)
  3. 20-F filed 2019-04-26 · period ending 2018-12-31 · accession 0001104659-19-023874 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 20-F filed 2020-04-28 · period ending 2019-12-31 · accession 0001564590-20-019287 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  5. 20-F filed 2021-04-28 · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001564590-21-021431 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  6. 20-F filed 2017-04-28 · period ending 2016-12-31 · accession 0001104659-17-027241 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 20-F filed 2018-04-26 · period ending 2017-12-31 · accession 0001104659-18-026859 (ProfitLoss)
  8. 20-F filed 2019-04-26 · period ending 2018-12-31 · accession 0001104659-19-023874 (ProfitLoss)
  9. 20-F filed 2020-04-28 · period ending 2019-12-31 · accession 0001564590-20-019287 (ProfitLoss)
  10. 20-F filed 2021-04-28 · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001564590-21-021431 (ProfitLoss)
  11. 20-F filed 2017-04-28 · period ending 2016-12-31 · accession 0001104659-17-027241 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 20-F filed 2018-04-26 · period ending 2017-12-31 · accession 0001104659-18-026859 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 20-F filed 2019-04-26 · period ending 2018-12-31 · accession 0001104659-19-023874 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  14. 20-F filed 2020-04-28 · period ending 2019-12-31 · accession 0001564590-20-019287 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  15. 20-F filed 2021-04-28 · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001564590-21-021431 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  16. 20-F filed 2017-04-28 · period ending 2016-12-31 · accession 0001104659-17-027241 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  17. 20-F filed 2018-04-26 · period ending 2017-12-31 · accession 0001104659-18-026859 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  18. 20-F filed 2019-04-26 · period ending 2018-12-31 · accession 0001104659-19-023874 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  19. 20-F filed 2020-04-28 · period ending 2019-12-31 · accession 0001564590-20-019287 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  20. 20-F filed 2021-04-28 · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001564590-21-021431 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  21. 20-F filed 2017-04-28 · period ending 2016-12-31 · accession 0001104659-17-027241 (ShortTermBankLoansAndNotesPayable)
  22. 20-F filed 2018-04-26 · period ending 2017-12-31 · accession 0001104659-18-026859 (ShortTermBankLoansAndNotesPayable)
  23. 20-F filed 2019-04-26 · period ending 2018-12-31 · accession 0001104659-19-023874 (ShortTermBankLoansAndNotesPayable)
  24. 20-F filed 2017-04-28 · period ending 2016-12-31 · accession 0001104659-17-027241 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  25. 20-F filed 2018-04-26 · period ending 2017-12-31 · accession 0001104659-18-026859 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  26. 20-F filed 2020-04-28 · period ending 2018-12-31 · accession 0001564590-20-019287 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  27. 20-F filed 2021-04-28 · periods ending 2019-12-31, 2020-12-31 · accession 0001564590-21-021431 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)