MeritValue

FIRSTENERGY CORP

FEdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

FIRSTENERGY CORP earns about 14% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 6% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $18.29 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$11.1B1$12.5B2$12.9B3$13.5B3$15.1B3
Net income$1.28B4$406M5$1.1B6$978M6$1.02B6
Operating cash flow$2.81B7$2.68B8$1.39B9$2.89B9$3.7B9
Capital expenditure$2.49B10$2.85B11$3.36B12$4.03B12$4.71B12
Free cash flow (derived)$324M7−$165M8−$1.97B9−$1.14B9−$1.01B9
Total debt$1.61B13$451M14$2.03B15$1.53B16$1.05B16
Cash & equivalents$1.46B17$160M18$137M19$111M20$57M20
Diluted shares546.0M572.0M574.0M577.0M578.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$216.44
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$17.65
Free cash flow it threw off
−$17.39
Debt you’d be carrying
$18.13

10 shares is a claim on $216.44 of net worth that earned you $17.65 and generated −$17.39 of cash last year, against $18.13 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
14% avg · 5y
FY21 24%FY22 12%FY23 17%FY24 8%FY25 9%

It earned an average 14% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+6% shares · 5y

Share count is up 6% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 35% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$18.29
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$1.02B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$29.28
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001031296-22-000013 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001031296-25-000006 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001031296-26-000046 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001031296-24-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001031296-25-000006 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001031296-26-000046 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001031296-24-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001031296-25-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001031296-26-000046 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001031296-24-000008 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001031296-25-000006 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001031296-26-000046 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001031296-23-000014 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001031296-24-000008 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001031296-25-000006 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001031296-26-000046 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001031296-23-000014 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001031296-24-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001031296-25-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001031296-26-000046 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)