FedEx Freight Holding Company, Inc.
FDXFdata completeness 88%3 fiscal years on fileData notes: no data for concept 'cash'; no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'gainsOnRealEstateSales'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'
FedEx Freight Holding Company, Inc. earns about 49% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $93.3 and $110.54 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | FY 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $9.42B1 | $8.89B1 | $8.8B1 |
| Net income | $1.57B2 | $1.35B2 | $655M2 |
| Operating cash flow | $1.54B3 | $1.53B3 | $167M3 |
| Capital expenditure | $461M4 | $437M4 | $379M4 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $1.08B3 | $1.09B3 | −$212M3 |
| Total debt | — | — | $4.26B5 |
| Cash & equivalents | — | — | — |
| Diluted shares | 149.5M | 149.5M | 149.5M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on −$33.24 of net worth that earned you $43.81 and generated −$14.18 of cash last year, against $285.21 of debt.
It earned about 49% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is roughly flat over 3 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has held roughly steady.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $93.3 and $110.54 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth5.0%
- fcfBase$1.08B
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth5.0%
- fcfBase$1.08B
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$1.35B
- growthAssumed0.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $74.69 |
| Base | 5.0% | $99.67 |
| Bull | 10.0% | $129.57 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 10-K · period ending 2024-05-31 · accession 0001628280-26-053359 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-05-31 · accession 0001628280-26-053359 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-05-31 · accession 0001628280-26-053359 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-05-31 · accession 0001628280-26-053359 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
- 10-K · period ending 2026-05-31 · accession 0001628280-26-053359 (LongTermDebt)