MeritValue

FEDEX CORP

FDXdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

FEDEX CORP earns about 10% on invested capital, barely covering its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 10% of its shares over 5 years. The estimate methods put fair value between $36.82 and $177.42 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue$93.5B1$90.2B2$87.7B3$87.9B3$94.7B3
Net income$3.83B4$3.97B5$4.33B6$4.09B6$4.43B6
Operating cash flow$9.83B7$8.85B8$8.31B9$7.04B9$8.93B9
Capital expenditure$6.76B10$6.17B11$5.18B12$4.06B12$3.81B12
Free cash flow (derived)$3.07B7$2.67B8$3.14B9$2.98B9$5.12B9
Total debt$19.8B13$19.8B14$19.8B15$39.1B16$48.2B16
Cash & equivalents$6.9B17$6.86B18$6.5B19$5.5B20$13.3B20
Diluted shares266.0M256.0M251.0M243.0M239.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$1,324.14
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$185.48
Free cash flow it threw off
$214.06
Debt you’d be carrying
$2,018.54

10 shares is a claim on $1,324.14 of net worth that earned you $185.48 and generated $214.06 of cash last year, against $2,018.54 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
10% avg · 5y
FY22 12%FY23 11%FY24 12%FY25 7%FY26 7%

It earned about 10% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — roughly what it costs to fund the business, so the numbers show no clear edge.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−10% shares · 5y

Share count is down 10% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 144% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $36.82 and $177.42 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$36.82
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.7%
  • fcfBase$3.14B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$47.37
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.7%
  • fcfBase$3.14B
Earnings Power Value
$177.42
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$4.09B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.7%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $47.37
The three cases
Bear0.0%$41.32
Base0.7%$47.37
Bull5.7%$93.96

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.7%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-05-31 · accession 0000950170-24-083577 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-05-31 · accession 0001048911-25-000011 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-05-31 · accession 0001048911-26-000105 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-05-31 · accession 0000950170-24-083577 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-05-31 · accession 0001048911-25-000011 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-05-31 · accession 0001048911-26-000105 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-05-31 · accession 0000950170-24-083577 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-05-31 · accession 0001048911-25-000011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-05-31 · accession 0001048911-26-000105 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-05-31 · accession 0000950170-24-083577 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-05-31 · accession 0001048911-25-000011 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-05-31 · accession 0001048911-26-000105 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-05-31 · accession 0000950170-22-012762 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-05-31 · accession 0000950170-23-033201 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-05-31 · accession 0000950170-24-083577 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2025-05-31 · accession 0001048911-26-000105 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-05-31 · accession 0000950170-23-033201 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-05-31 · accession 0000950170-24-083577 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-05-31 · accession 0001048911-25-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2025-05-31 · accession 0001048911-26-000105 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)