MeritValue

FREEPORT-MCMORAN INC

FCXdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

FREEPORT-MCMORAN INC earns about 14% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 3% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $0.7 and $31.59 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$22.4B1$23.3B2$22.7B3$25.2B3$25.2B3
Net income$5.37B4$4.48B5$3.75B6$4.4B6$4.15B6
Operating cash flow$7.72B7$5.14B8$5.28B9$7.16B9$5.61B9
Capital expenditure$2.12B10$3.47B11$4.82B12$4.81B12$4.49B12
Free cash flow (derived)$5.6B7$1.67B8$455M9$2.35B9$1.12B9
Total debt$18.9B13$21.2B14$18.8B15$17.9B16$18.8B16
Cash & equivalents$8.07B17$8.15B18$4.76B19$3.92B20$3.82B20
Diluted shares1.48B1.45B1.44B1.45B1.44B

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$130.97
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$28.77
Free cash flow it threw off
$7.73
Debt you’d be carrying
$129.99

10 shares is a claim on $130.97 of net worth that earned you $28.77 and generated $7.73 of cash last year, against $129.99 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
14% avg · 5y
FY21 20%FY22 14%FY23 11%FY24 13%FY25 12%

It earned about 14% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−3% shares · 5y

Share count is down 3% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $0.7 and $31.59 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$1.12B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$0.7
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$1.12B
Earnings Power Value
$31.59
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$4.4B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $0.7
The three cases
Bear0.0%$0.7
Base0.0%$0.7
Bull5.0%$3.38

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000831259-24-000011 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000831259-25-000006 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000831259-26-000012 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000831259-24-000011 (ProfitLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000831259-25-000006 (ProfitLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000831259-26-000012 (ProfitLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000831259-24-000011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000831259-25-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000831259-26-000012 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000831259-24-000011 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000831259-25-000006 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000831259-26-000012 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000831259-23-000013 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000831259-24-000011 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000831259-25-000006 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000831259-26-000012 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000831259-23-000013 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000831259-24-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000831259-25-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000831259-26-000012 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)