MeritValue

FIRST CITIZENS BANCSHARES INC /DE/

FCNCAdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

FIRST CITIZENS BANCSHARES INC /DE/ earns about 15% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 32% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $1,758.14 and $7,635.81 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.45B1$5.08B2$18.8B3$9.76B3$9.54B3
Net income$547M4$1.1B5$11.5B6$2.78B6$2.21B6
Operating cash flow−$284M7$2.79B8$2.66B9$2.99B9$2.92B9
Capital expenditure$107M10$155M11$405M12$429M12$710M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$391M7$2.64B8$2.26B9$2.56B9$2.21B9
Total debt$1.78B13$6.65B14$37.7B15$37.1B16$36B16
Cash & equivalents$9.03B17$518M18$908M18$814M18$801M18
Diluted shares9.8M15.5M14.5M14.3M13.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$17,102.92
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$1,696.6
Free cash flow it threw off
$1,701.99
Debt you’d be carrying
$27,693.23

10 shares is a claim on $17,102.92 of net worth that earned you $1,696.6 and generated $1,701.99 of cash last year, against $27,693.23 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
15% avg · 5y
FY21 —FY22 9%FY23 26%FY24 14%FY25 13%

It earned about 15% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+32% shares · 5y

Share count is up 32% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 1918% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $1,758.14 and $7,635.81 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$7,635.81
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$2.26B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$2,946.68
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$2.26B
Earnings Power Value
$1,758.14
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$2.21B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$2,521.65
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $2,946.68
The three cases
Bear0.0%−$229.81
Base20.0%$2,946.68
Bull20.0%$2,946.68

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000798941-24-000018 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000798941-25-000010 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000798941-26-000015 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000798941-24-000018 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000798941-25-000010 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000798941-26-000015 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000798941-24-000018 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000798941-25-000010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000798941-26-000015 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000798941-24-000018 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000798941-25-000010 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000798941-26-000015 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000798941-23-000017 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000798941-24-000018 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000798941-25-000010 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000798941-26-000015 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000798941-22-000014 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000798941-26-000015 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)