MeritValue

FTI CONSULTING, INC

FCNdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

FTI CONSULTING, INC earns about 16% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 7% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $67.27 and $85.37 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$2.78B1$3.03B2$3.49B3$3.7B3$3.79B3
Net income$235M4$235.5M5$274.9M6$280.1M6$270.9M6
Operating cash flow$355.5M7$188.8M8$224.5M9$395.1M9$152.1M9
Capital expenditure$68.7M10$53.3M11$49.5M12$35.4M12$58.5M12
Free cash flow (derived)$286.8M7$135.5M8$175M9$359.7M9$93.6M9
Total debt$594.3M13$630.3M14$014$015$365M15
Cash & equivalents$494.5M16$491.7M17$303.2M18$660.5M19$265.1M19
Diluted shares35.3M35.8M35.6M35.8M32.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$527.27
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$82.38
Free cash flow it threw off
$28.47
Debt you’d be carrying
$111.01

10 shares is a claim on $527.27 of net worth that earned you $82.38 and generated $28.47 of cash last year, against $111.01 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
16% avg · 5y
FY21 15%FY22 13%FY23 17%FY24 18%FY25 15%

It earned about 16% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−7% shares · 5y

Share count is down 7% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 39% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $67.27 and $85.37 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$67.27
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$175M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$73
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$175M
Earnings Power Value
$85.37
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$270.9M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$98.87
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $73
The three cases
Bear0.0%$73
Base0.0%$73
Bull5.0%$91.4

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000887936-24-000015 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000887936-25-000014 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000887936-26-000013 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000887936-24-000015 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000887936-25-000014 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000887936-26-000013 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000887936-24-000015 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000887936-25-000014 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000887936-26-000013 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000887936-24-000015 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000887936-25-000014 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000887936-26-000013 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000887936-23-000016 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000887936-24-000015 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000887936-26-000013 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000887936-23-000016 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000887936-24-000015 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000887936-25-000014 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000887936-26-000013 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)