MeritValue

FirstCash Holdings, Inc.

FCFSdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

FirstCash Holdings, Inc. earns about 5% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 9% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $59 and $535.11 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.13B1$1.26B2$1.38B3$1.51B3$1.67B3
Net income$124.9M4$253.5M5$219.3M6$258.8M6$330.4M6
Operating cash flow$223.3M7$469.3M8$416.1M9$540M9$585.9M9
Capital expenditure$42M10$35.6M11$60.1M12$68.2M12$54.9M12
Free cash flow (derived)$181.3M7$433.7M8$356M9$471.7M9$531M9
Total debt$2.6B13$2.76B14$3.22B15$3.48B16$4.43B16
Cash & equivalents$120M17$117.3M18$127M19$175.1M20$125.2M20
Diluted shares41.0M47.3M45.7M45.2M44.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$511.33
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$74.2
Free cash flow it threw off
$119.26
Debt you’d be carrying
$995.47

10 shares is a claim on $511.33 of net worth that earned you $74.2 and generated $119.26 of cash last year, against $995.47 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
5% avg · 5y
FY21 3%FY22 7%FY23 6%FY24 5%FY25 5%

It earned about 5% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+9% shares · 5y

Share count is up 9% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 70% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $59 and $535.11 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$535.11
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$471.7M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$248.67
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$471.7M
Earnings Power Value
$59
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$253.5M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$92.39
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $248.67
The three cases
Bear0.0%$54.63
Base20.0%$248.67
Bull20.0%$248.67

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000840489-24-000042 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000840489-25-000032 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000840489-26-000032 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000840489-24-000042 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000840489-25-000032 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000840489-26-000032 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000840489-24-000042 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000840489-25-000032 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000840489-26-000032 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000840489-24-000042 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000840489-25-000032 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000840489-26-000032 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000840489-23-000041 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000840489-24-000042 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000840489-25-000032 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000840489-26-000032 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000840489-23-000041 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000840489-24-000042 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000840489-25-000032 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000840489-26-000032 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)