FIRST COMMONWEALTH FINANCIAL CORP /PA/
FCFdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on fileFIRST COMMONWEALTH FINANCIAL CORP /PA/ earns about 17% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 8% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $14.27 and $18.08 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $293.8M1 | $330M2 | $530M3 | $600.5M3 | $632.7M3 |
| Net income | $138.3M4 | $128.2M5 | $157.1M6 | $142.6M6 | $152.3M6 |
| Operating cash flow | $165M7 | $151.4M8 | $150.8M9 | $129.5M9 | $187.5M9 |
| Capital expenditure | $10.6M10 | $11.2M11 | $22M12 | $15.5M12 | $16.1M12 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $154.4M7 | $140.2M8 | $128.7M9 | $113.9M9 | $171.5M9 |
| Total debt | $320.6M13 | $372.7M14 | $597.8M15 | $80.1M15 | $148M15 |
| Cash & equivalents | $395.4M16 | $154.2M17 | $147M17 | $133.4M17 | $180.4M17 |
| Diluted shares | 95.8M | 93.9M | 101.8M | 102.2M | 103.5M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $150.15 of net worth that earned you $14.71 and generated $16.56 of cash last year, against $14.29 of debt.
It earned about 17% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is up 8% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 54% — deleveraging.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $14.27 and $18.08 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth0.0%
- fcfBase$128.7M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth0.0%
- fcfBase$128.7M
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$142.6M
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $18.08 |
| Base | 0.0% | $18.08 |
| Bull | 5.0% | $22.38 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000712537-24-000054 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000712537-25-000061 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000712537-26-000013 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000712537-24-000054 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000712537-25-000061 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000712537-26-000013 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000712537-24-000054 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000712537-25-000061 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000712537-26-000013 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000712537-24-000054 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000712537-25-000061 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000712537-26-000013 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000712537-22-000007 (LongTermDebt)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000712537-25-000061 (ShortTermBorrowings)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000712537-26-000013 (ShortTermBorrowings)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000712537-25-000061 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000712537-26-000013 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)