MeritValue

FUELCELL ENERGY INC

FCELdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

FUELCELL ENERGY INC earns about -31% on invested capital, and has bought back 92% of its shares over 5 years. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$69.6M1$130.5M2$123.4M3$112.1M3$158.2M3
Net income−$101.1M4−$142.7M5−$107.6M6−$126M6−$187.9M6
Operating cash flow−$70.4M7−$112.2M8−$140.3M9−$152.9M9−$125.3M9
Capital expenditure$6.35M10$21.1M11$39.4M12$47.7M12$18.6M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$76.8M7−$133.2M8−$179.6M9−$200.6M9−$143.9M9
Total debt$10.1M13$13.2M14$10.1M15$15.9M16$15.8M16
Cash & equivalents$432.2M17$458.1M18$250M19$148.1M19$278.1M19
Diluted shares334.7M12.8M14.0M16.5M25.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$257.22
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$72.99
Free cash flow it threw off
−$55.9
Debt you’d be carrying
$6.16

10 shares is a claim on $257.22 of net worth that earned you −$72.99 and generated −$55.9 of cash last year, against $6.16 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-31% avg · 5y
FY21 -34%FY22 -46%FY23 -18%FY24 -22%FY25 -36%

It earned an average -31% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−92% shares · 5y

Share count is down 92% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 57% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-31 · accession 0001558370-23-019892 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-10-31 · accession 0001558370-24-016497 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-10-31 · accession 0001104659-25-122302 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-31 · accession 0001558370-23-019892 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-10-31 · accession 0001558370-24-016497 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-10-31 · accession 0001104659-25-122302 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-31 · accession 0001558370-23-019892 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-10-31 · accession 0001558370-24-016497 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-10-31 · accession 0001104659-25-122302 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-31 · accession 0001558370-23-019892 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-10-31 · accession 0001558370-24-016497 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-10-31 · accession 0001104659-25-122302 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-31 · accession 0001558370-22-018810 (DebtCurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-10-31 · accession 0001558370-23-019892 (DebtCurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-10-31 · accession 0001558370-24-016497 (DebtCurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-10-31 · accession 0001104659-25-122302 (DebtCurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-31 · accession 0001558370-22-018810 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-10-31 · accession 0001558370-24-016497 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-10-31 · accession 0001104659-25-122302 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)