MeritValue

FIRST COMMUNITY BANKSHARES INC /VA/

FCBCdata completeness 75%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

FIRST COMMUNITY BANKSHARES INC /VA/ earns about 19% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 6% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $27.46 and $85.84 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$105.3M1$114.3M2$137.2M3$146.1M3$142.5M3
Net income$51.2M4$46.7M5$48M6$51.6M6$48.8M6
Operating cash flow$48.2M7$59M8$61.8M9$57.7M9$62.7M9
Capital expenditure$3.04M10$1.16M11$2.77M12$2.81M12$2.74M12
Free cash flow (derived)$45.2M7$57.9M8$59.1M9$54.9M9$60M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents—————
Diluted shares17.4M16.6M18.0M18.4M18.4M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$271.88
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$26.5
Free cash flow it threw off
$32.59
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $271.88 of net worth that earned you $26.5 and generated $32.59 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
19% avg · 5y
FY21 12%FY22 11%FY23 11%FY24 29%FY25 29%

It earned about 19% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+6% shares · 5y

Share count is up 6% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $27.46 and $85.84 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$85.84
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth9.3%
  • fcfBase$59.1M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$68.32
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth9.3%
  • fcfBase$59.1M
Earnings Power Value
$27.46
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$48.8M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$40.26
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years9.3%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $68.32
The three cases
Bear0.0%$45.83
Base9.3%$68.32
Bull14.3%$83.74

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 9.3%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-007150 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-006683 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-007180 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-007150 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-006683 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-007180 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-007150 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-006683 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-007180 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-007150 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-006683 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-007180 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)